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Prediction for CME (2024-07-27T06:36:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2024-07-27T06:36Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/32245/-1
CME Note: Asymmetric halo CME visible towards the NW in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and towards the NE in STEREO A COR2. The source is an M3.1 flare from AR 3762 with dimming/EUV wave towards the N/NW starting at 2024-07-27T05:42Z best seen in GOES SUVI 195 and 284 (SDO/AIA has an eclipse shortly after the event starts). The eruption is also visible south of disk center as seen in available EUV imagery. Arrival signature: a likely combined shock of this CME and up to 3 preceding CMEs characterized by a sharp increase in B_total from ~5nT to ~13 and eventually to 15nT, fast fluctuation of magnetic field components, a jump in solar wind speed from 330 to 480 km/s and an increase in density from 6 to above 10 p/cc.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2024-07-29T23:20Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-07-29T15:00Z (-6.0h, +9.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 60.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 5.0 - 7.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
Prediction Method Note:

Met Office ENLIL settings.
ENLIL version: 2.7
Resolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)
Ambient settings: a3b2-sa1
WSA version: 4.5
GONG: mrzqs
Note that this arrival time forecast is based on the simulation but is then adjusted by a human-in-the-loop.

Please specify following CME input parameters.
Time at 21.5Rs boundary: 2024-07-27T11:00Z
Radial velocity (km/s): 870
Longitude (deg): 08W
Latitude (deg): 15N
Half-angular width (deg): 41

Notes: HALO CME likely associated with M3.1 flare from AR3762. Imagery remains heavily contaminated by far-side event but Ok confidence fit.
Space weather advisor: Alister McHardy

Lead Time: 23.42 hour(s)
Difference: 8.33 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Met Office (Met Office) on 2024-07-28T23:55Z

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